Excellent post.


Excellent post.

Originally shared by Kate Martin

All righty. Let's review.

As it stands this morning:

* Police have registered a 57% increase in racist incidents, with attacks on European citizens living and working here, as well as a rise in attacks on black and Asian citizens by a surging far-right. (Leave voters insist that they didn't vote Brexit for racist reasons, and in most cases that's no doubt true. However the campaign and vote has empowered these people and helped to legitimise their attitudes.)

* Two-and-a-bit TRILLION dollars wiped off the world economy.
* Sterling now down to $1.3220 against the US dollar; at €1.20 against the euro. (In other words, we're approaching parity with that struggling European currency we were supposed to be freeing ourselves from even though we weren't tied to it in the first place.)
* Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays tripped automated suspensions on the markets after their stock dropped 26% and 18% respectively. (Note: pauses like this are a volatility-control mechanism, and trip regularly when company values drop or climb too far too fast. Both stocks are now trading again, but it's the extent of the drop that's dizzying. RBS - mostly taxpayer-owned - lost a quarter of its value.)
* In just the first day after the referendum result was announced, we lost the equivalent of FIFTEEN YEARS' worth of EU contributions from our economy.
* UK drops from its vaunted "fifth-largest economy in the world" position - a major selling point of the Vote Leave campaign - to sixth-largest. We're still descending.
* Science and technology companies are moving to relocate staff to other EU countries; companies already in other countries are already headhunting staff from UK. In sci/tech this outflow of workers is referred to as a 'brain drain', and directly threatens UK's position as a renowned innovator.
* Every international credit agency has now downgraded the UK. Our outlook has gone from 'stable' to 'negative' in each case. We no longer have a single AAA rating.
* Economic forecasts predict at least several years of continuing uncertainty.
* Frankfurt is already gearing up to replace London as Europe's primary commercial centre (no, not the EU's - Europe's).

* The Prime Minister has resigned. Jeremy Corbyn won't, even while the Labour party - the only credible opposition to the Tories - falls apart around him. (Corbyn was the clear majority choice of the Labour membership, though he has always been heavily criticised and resisted by the Parliamentary Labour Party.)
* Boris Johnson wrote a (well paid, of course) column insisting that it's okay: we'll still, somehow, be able to access the Single Market and enjoy free movement into Europe for Brits without having to pay EU contributions, abide by EU rules, or reciprocate that right to freedom of movement. The EU replied that, no, we really won't.
* Don't forget that Johnson, Cameron, Farage and the various other players in this clusterfuck are all very rich men. They can ride this out quite easily, or just walk away and maybe move to other countries on a whim should things get too rough here.

* Nearly four million people have signed a petition demanding the referendum be held again. Are they right, and petitioning is a valid democratic mechanism? Or are they traitors and haters of democracy, betraying the memory of those who died so that we could be free? Well, we can argue about that, too. Why not?
* Increasing evidence of Leave voters regretting their choice. This may be being over-hyped by the press, but there's substantial evidence of at least some "voter's remorse". Numerous people have claimed they only voted Leave as a protest against the Government. Unfortunately, this wasn't an election.

* Key Leave promises were backpedalled on the FIRST DAY after the vote. It was, apparently, "a mistake" to suggest that £350 million per week could be spent on the NHS, according to the victorious Nigel Farage. And, apparently, those who hoped that leaving the EU would spell an end to immigration will be "disappointed", says Daniel Hannan. Again: THE FIRST DAY.
* The promises made have been removed from the Leave campaign website. They may be back up by now, they may not. After all, there's the Wayback Machine, so removing them wouldn't do any good. Not to mention all the pictures of that fucking bus.
* Ian Duncan Smith actually opened his mouth and actually said these actual words: "We didn't make commitments. We made promises that were possibilities." Again: "We made promises that were possibilities." Well, I promise it's possible I'll give everyone who reads this forty million pounds (although the way things are going that probably won't buy you a bag of crisps by the end of the year).

* TURKEY STILL ISN'T JOINING THE EU.

* But for those still concerned about immigration (no, it was never the problem you made it out to be - sorry, but it just wasn't), you may be interested to know that France is already moving to scrap the agreement that kept prospective migrants to Britain in Calais, and to return British border control to Dover.

* Scotland is considering a second independence referendum. Although many Scots disagree, their national EU referendum result was much clearer than the margin for the UK as a whole. The majority of Scots wanted to remain part of the EU. It's at least probable that in the event of a second IndyRef, Scotland will vote to leave the UK.
* Northern Ireland faces a huge problem, in that it has the UK's only land border with the EU. That means the Northern Ireland/Republic border will have to become a barrier once again. That means it will need to be enforced. That will seriously undermine the stability enjoyed since the Good Friday Agreement. Since Northern Ireland also predominantly voted Remain, there's already talk of reunification. So while it may not yet be likely, it's no longer unthinkable that Northern Ireland may also leave the UK, whether or not it chooses to reunite with the Republic.

* Wales and Cornwall both voted to Leave the EU - however both regions have already appealed to central government to reassure them that the massive EU investment into their areas won't be lost and will be matched by the UK Treasury.

* Oh, and Plaid Cymru have announced they're resuming their campaign for independence. So while Wales may have voted Leave in common with England, their own independence pull is now back on the table. It's just a question of whether the Welsh want to be independent from the EU more than they want to be independent of the UK.

* I don't even want to think too hard about the overall geopolitical destabilisation because I'm just too, too scared.

This is just FIVE DAYS IN. And as of this writing at least, bear in mind WE HAVEN'T EVEN ACTIVATED ARTICLE 50 YET. All the above, and more, is happening because of a vote that had the legal and political weight of an opinion poll.

Does this sound like crowing? If this sounds like crowing, it's not meant to. This isn't me being pleased at the fact that things are going wrong; that 'Project Fear', so derided by Leave voters prior to the referendum, is proving to have been at least mostly valid and accurate warnings. If this post sounds like anything, it should sound more like me crying, just like I've been doing for five days now.

You know what? I don't WANT 'Project Fear' to have been accurate. I don't WANT to see their predictions coming true. I want to see Vote Leave proved right. I want them to show me that Britain is, actually, going to be fine outside - because if this is what we're stuck with then I want it to work out. Not just for me, although yes, obviously, of course for me, but for everyone. I don't want to see our once open and tolerant country sink into racism and hate. I don't want to see the economy tank, and people lose their jobs, homes, pensions. I don't want to see companies moving out and public services collapsing or being sold off under an unrestrained Tory government with no credible opposition. And I don't want to see the UK break up, or Europe being destabilised and barriers starting to go up again at a time when we need unity and partnership more than ever.

So, please, someone tell me it's all going to be okay despite the very obvious fact that it's not. You're going to have to be EXCEPTIONALLY convincing.

Comments

eric j scott said…
Can one discount the effect Trumps rants may have had on the situation.
Re Brexit , I fear the fallout could get a lot worse before the smoke clears.

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